Here’s the latest round-Up of research on Britain’s EU Referendum by Matthew Goodwin, Professor of Politics, University of Kent & Visiting Fellow Chatham House.
Is Leave Gaining Ground?
The Boris Effect – overrated?
What of the Renegotiation?
The Scottish Question.
Here’s a useful article by journalist Hugh Schofield, BBC News, Paris on why the French government doesn’t want a « yes » vote in the upcoming Scottish referendum.
http://w ww.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-28739399
« Nothing unites different nations quite like mutual enemies. But the « Auld Alliance » between Scotland and France – both historic rivals of England – doesn’t mean that the French government favours Scottish independence. Far from it. »
« France is not Spain, where the precedent Scotland might set for Catalonia is very real. Here the regions make a lot of noise, but there is no risk of separation. »
« No, for France the argument against Scottish independence is our dream of a strong United Kingdom, fully engaged in Europe, whose purpose is to counter-balance a Germany that gets more powerful every year. »
« Anything that detracts from that strong United Kingdom – as Scottish independence would do – goes against French ambitions in Europe. »
Here’s an interesting article by Andrew Smithers writing in the on-line Financial Times on 13th August, 2014 and from which an extract is quoted below.
« Scotland is anti-Thatcher. The stated objections to Thatcher are that she was nasty and divisive. But the Scottish admire divisive people such as Nye Bevan, who called Conservatives ?vermin?, Arthur Scargill, who aimed to bring down an elected government and succeeded in bringing down an industry, and Alex Salmond, whose style is often divisive and his aim always. The real objection to Thatcher is that she seems to have been right and her opponents therefore wrong. Her economic policies were aimed at increasing the pot rather than worrying about its division. If, as I expect, devolution weakens Scotland?s dependency culture, its government will shift in this direction. It will be fascinating to observe Scotland becoming more Thatcherite while pretending not to do so. Thatcherite policies will have to be relabelled, but this will be easy for good marketing men and, if you are in politics and not good at marketing, then you are in the wrong job. »
At last a positive and emotional view of the Union with Scotland by historian Simon Schama, writing in The Financial Times of 9th May, 2014.
« A splendid mess of a union should not be torn asunder.
Scotland?s exit from Britain?s multicultural unity would be a disaster. »
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/085b4586-d5fc-11e3-a239-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz31IfNXNr8
According to David Aaronovitch writing in The Times, (Nigel) Farage of UKIP is shorthand for those in the UK, including around a third of Tories, who want separation from the EU; (Alex) Salmond of the SNP is a figurehead for those in Scotland who want separation from the UK. The writer finds it increasingly hard not to see the similarities in their arguments:
– The UK (Scotland) has been diminished by its association with, or absorption into, a larger grouping represented by « Brussels » (« Westminster ») that rule and rule badly.
– The people of the UK (Scotland) did not vote for Jose Manuel Barroso (David Cameron).
– UKIP praises Switzerland as a model non-EU country while the SNP/Scottish manifesto mentioned Norway 57 times and that « small, independent nations of comparable size to Scotland are the world’s happiest. »
– Both camps share a common language of complacent and ill-founded reassurance: It will be alright. They’re just bluffing. Britain (Scotland) is too important to the EU (UK) for them not to allow us to separate on our terms.
Reference: Farage and Salmond want you to live in Outopia, David Aaronovitch, The Times, Thursday April 17, 2014
Writing in The Guardian below on Monday 7th April, 2014 former Liberal Democrat leader Menzies Campbell thinks that:
« Those who argue against independence have a duty to recognise that most Scots want their parliament to have more powers. »
« ……..the majority of Scots still prefer a solution that allows Scotland to remain in the UK but for its parliament to have greater powers, most particularly economic. The Conservatives, Labour and Liberal Democrats publicly acknowledge this reality. They differ in nuance and detail, but not in principle. »
« The promises of the SNP are incapable of achievement, but it chooses to challenge the good faith of the three parties in their undertakings to embrace that principle. Its challenge would be effectively blunted if the three parties could agree on the process of implementation of that principle. »
Entering the debate on Scottish independence, former Prime Minister Gordan Brown in the article linked to below, proposes laws to enshrine Britain’s pooling and sharing of wealth while maximising devolution to Scotland:
« I am of the view that the party that first created a powerful Scottish parliament is best placed to strengthen devolution and to create a stronger Scottish parliament in a stronger UK ».
What should be the position of the Conservative party in appealing more to the hearts than the minds of the Scottish people in preserving the Union?