The House of Commons Library has produced a summary of the ??Summer Budget? 2015 which includes the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) forecasts for the economy and public finances.
Read the summary or download the full report here:
http://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-7251
Source: Facebook/UK Parliament
Thanks to the Yahoo! Finance link below, here are the key points in the post-election budget of Chancellor George Osborne.
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/budget-key-points-know-111606650.html
Thanks to the on-line Telegraph, here’s an interesting range of views on Britain’s current negotiating position to feed into our EU discussion programme.
Steve Peers, Professor of EU and Human Rights Law at the University of Essex, suggests that renegotiation of the UK’s membership of the European Union (EU) could be possible without treaty change (click on the link below for his article).
« So some have suggested the ?Danish solution?: namely a decision of the EU Heads of State and Government, meeting within the European Council, which constitutes the EU?s response to the renegotiation request, probably in conjunction with amendments to EU secondary legislation.
Such Decisions have been adopted in the past, as regards Denmark and Ireland, in order to address the former Member State?s difficulties ratifying the Maastricht Treaty and the latter Member State?s difficulties ratifying the Treaty of Lisbon. In the latter case, the European Council (ie Member States? Presidents and Prime Ministers) also agreed the broader legal and political context of this decision: the decision was ?legally binding?, it did not constitute a Treaty amendment, and its content would be set out in a Protocol to be attached to the Treaties in future. Indeed, the latter protocol was subsequently signed and ratified as promised. The UK could be offered a similar commitment. »
http://eulawanalysis.blogspot.co.uk/2015/05/is-it-possible-to-reform-eu-without.html
The BCiP Key Issues Programme
As a result of the May 7th election outcome the referendum on Europe now stands front and centre in both British and European Union political life. BCiP therefore has launched a programmatical series to identify and help clarify the big issues attaching to the question of Britain?s place in Europe: ?Britain and the Future of Europe: BCiP Key Issues Programme?.
The first event will set the stage for those following, by recalling the institutional framework of the main European bodies, highlighting strengths, weaknesses, attendant (desirable or less so) institutional dynamics and unresolved difficulties. The picture thus emerging will be set against the expressed positions of the Conservative Party ? both as to end results sought and process to get there. And then we shall ask: (a) what are the big institutional issues? and (b) starting from here and now, how can they be tackled?
Subsequent events will focus on different policy fields or choices of existential importance to both Europe & Britain: the sources of identity ? Britain and Europe compared; the geopolitics of Europe & Britain?s understanding of its own defence and international relations game plan; comparative economics: staying on board versus jumping board; and in conclusion, to step back and sum up: strategic and cultural choices ? what is at stake? what does Britain really want?
Internal and external speakers will figure.
We hope to draw participants and/or observers to the Programme from beyond as well as within BCiP.?
Paul Thomson
BCiP Vice Chairman
There is too little understanding in the British public of the reasons that, under the Tories, the British economy is increasing by over 2% per year, while there is economic stagnation in most of the rest of Europe.
An important one is the reduction of bureaucratic administration. A BBC review of the French community in London revealed that the greatest motive for moving to London was the greater sense of freedom it offered them from the delays and constraints of life back home.
It is this, in a world where innovation has become a dominating theme in the economic world, which has given the impulse for Britain’s economic growth. It has taken a firm lead in the field of « Start-Ups ». It has several outstanding centres of excellence such as Cambridge and Hackney; being a major financial centre is also providing the venture capital to finance promising, innovating enterprises. This spirit of independent initiative goes deeper; 8 million people are now working alone.
Suffering under the handicap of austerity budgets the Government has nevertheless shown vision by several major undertakings: London?s Crossrail; The proposed HS2 high-speed line to the Midlands: The project for improving the rail system in the North.
This is part of their economic planning to reduce the disparity between North and South England. This includes plans to devolve power to the major cities, so that they will have restored to them authority over education, local planning and taxation etc. which were lost during the World Wars. This has already taken place in the case of Manchester. A number of Northern industrial towns have had their centres rebuilt. There are increasing signs of a return to industrial activity in the North.
Five years is not a long time in terms of economic trends. But in this time the Conservatives have planted the shoots for a British revival based on the principles of liberalism, of individual initiative and endeavour, relatively untrammeled by heavy bureaucracy and taxation.
A Labour victory in May would see a return to Socialist principles, risking a return to the static conditions we have witnessed in France.
Michael Webster
BCiP Member
Elections are decided on the personalities of the leaders of the parties, on the policies that they put forward but, above all, on the record of the government that has been in power up to the election. So let us have a look at what the Conservative led coalition has achieved and how the electorate should react to it.
The vital issue is the economy and the Conservative Party identified the Labour government?s budget deficit as the problem that they had to resolve.
Historically Conservative governments have always been strong in balancing public expenditure with the government?s revenue receipts. Under the Thatcher government, the 1990 budget was in surplus by £6 billion and the national debt stood at 27.7 per cent of GDP.
Gordon Brown, as Chancellor and as Prime Minister, decided to impose a ?Golden Rule?. This required the government to generate a budget surplus across the lifetime of an economic cycle. Unfortunately Labour?s inherent commitment to government spending was too strong, and they got round this commitment by defining the economic cycle to suit their own ends. So when the Coalition Government came to power in May 2010 it had inherited a budget deficit of £153.5 billion, 10.2% of GDP. Total expenditure was £673 billion, so the government was borrowing 23% of what they spent. In his June 2010 emergency Budget speech George Osborne said « As this is the last Budget in which the Golden Rule will appear, I would like to be the last Chancellor to report on it. We are set to miss the Golden Rule in this cycle by £485 billion. »
Conservatives believe that government deficits must be controlled not just out of blind adherence to political dogma but for sound practical reasons. Firstly higher government borrowing pushes interest rates up to a higher level than they would otherwise be, and that reduces private sector economic activity. Secondly, high borrowing results in pressures to increase taxation and taxation, however necessary, also reduces growth in the private sector economy. Finally increased public borrowing increases the National Debt, which requires greater government expenditure to service it. Those of us who live in France, of course, know all of that full well. So the government?s achievement on reducing the deficit to what is expected to be £90 billion in 2014/15, is strongly to be welcomed.
This has contributed to the trend for employment to rise and unemployment to fall that we have seen since late 2011/early 2012. There are currently 30.9 million people in work, 2 million more than when the government came to power. The official employment rate, i.e. the proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 in work, is 73.3%
The proportion of the economically active population who are unemployed (the unemployment rate) is 5.7%, compared to 7.8% when the government took office.
So the theory set out above works, and the reduction in the public deficit has yielded significant benefits to the UK economy. The painful austerity programme is not just adherence to political dogmatism that deserves public rejection, as our opponents would have the electorate believe, it is beneficial to the country as a whole, and particularly to those two million extra people who now have jobs.
Robin Baker
BCiP Member
When David Cameron came to power, he promised that Britain, with the fourth largest defence budget in the world, a close relationship with the United States and an important role in the EU, would play a major role in world affairs with a highly active foreign policy.
His actual record has been a dismal, even reprehensible one.
He is reneging on Britain’s moral obligation to NATO to devote 2% of our GDP to Defence and already reduced Britain’s ranking from fourth to sixth in the world. Possessed in the past with a highly skilled diplomatic corps and an admired military capacity, punching well above its weight, Britain is now much less engaged in foreign affairs and plays only a subdued role.
It has raised doubts in the United States about its capacity to be an ally one can count on with an army reduced from 120,000 to 80,000. Whereas it used to be a member that played a notable part in the formation of EU policy, it is losing support and is increasingly disregarded. In the past our civil servants, highly regarded, filled a disproportionately high number of senior posts. They are now far fewer, being replaced by Germans.
In the Ukraine dispute, we left negotiation to Merkel and Hollande, we voted against participation in action against Bashad, we contribute almost nothing to the air strikes against ISIS in Iraq and offer no support for the French in Africa.
The Foreign Office’s budget has been cut 30% under Cameron and the results are felt everywhere in the Service. And how many of us can name the Foreign Secretary?
So, what of the future? Discounted by the Americans, cold-shouldered in the EU, prestige diminished, how long would it take to once more regain our standing in the world?
Michael Webster
BCiP Member
View this France24.com debate on a « Divided Britain » – UK Elections: Support for the Main Parties Eroding – and involving Jeremy Stubbs, Chairman of British Conservatives in Paris, Evan O’Connell, Vice-Chair Labour Party in France, Melissa Bell a France 24 journalist and John Curtice, Professor of Politics at Strathclyde University.
http://m.france24.com/en/20150406-the-debate-UK-elex-partone/
That the long-term economic plan of the Conservative-led Coalition is working for the United Kingdom is confirmed by the OECD in this survey linked to below.
Why would you as a voter risk the UK’s economy by handing control of it back to Labour?
The OECD, as a neutral independent organisation, is broadly positive on the policies and achievements of the present UK government.
Voting for the Conservatives in the General Election would ensure that these responsible policies continue.
http://www.oecd.org/unitedkingdom/economic-survey-united-kingdom.htm
At a press conference at the Treasury on 25th. February, the OECD Secretary General with the Chancellor presented a positive report on the UK economy.
Key conclusions are:
– UK GDP growth in 2014 was 2.6%, the strongest performance among G7 countries;
– The recovery has benefitted from wide ranging domestic policy measures;
– While productivity growth should be accelerated, employment is at a record level;
– Fiscal policy has included well-chosen consolidation measures;
– With the exception of the housing sector where inflation needs careful management, inflationary pressures have been low;
– Although public debt continues to rise, the budget deficit has been significantly reduced since its 2009 peak;
– Infrastructure underinvestment is being tackled by the authorities within tight fiscal constraints;
– Important regulatory reforms have been implemented in the banking sector to address financial stability risks;
While generally favourable on UK economic policy, the OECD makes important recommendations on future priorities:
– The Bank of England should begin to tighten monetary policies to meet emerging inflationary pressures
– fiscal consolidation needs to be continued in the medium term;
– further efficiency gains are needed in health and education;
– The successful National Infrastructure Plan should be used as the basis for further progress;
– Public/private partnerships for infrastructure developments should be continued and strengthened;
– Regulatory constraints to boost housing supply should be further relaxed.
Peter Huggins
BCiP Member