Archive for the ‘Chairman »s blog’ Category

Why this Hate for Margaret Thatcher?

jeudi, septembre 13th, 2012

For those who were around in the 1970s and those who weren’t but choose to judge her, the hard-hitting article below from MEP Daniel Hannan speaks well in her defence.
The Left hates Margaret Thatcher because she reminds them they are wrong about everything

Now and again, we are reminded of the sheer nastiness of a certain kind of Leftie. Not, let me stress, all Lefties: I have Labour friends who are motivated by a more or less uncomplicated desire to help the disadvantaged.
But they march alongside some committed haters who define their politics not by what they like, but by what they loathe. They also define opponents not as human beings with whom they disagree, but as legitimate targets.
A lack of empathy, bordering almost on sociopathy sits behind their talk of caring and sharing.
On sale at the TUC Conference, before a storm of protest forced their withdrawal, were T-shirts glorying in the eventual death of Margaret Thatcher.
?A generation of trade unionists will dance on Thatcher?s grave,? says one, emblazoned with the image of her tombstone.

Open Letter to Supporters of Stimulus/Opponents of Austerity

mercredi, septembre 5th, 2012

Here’s a thought-provoking open letter to supporters of stimulus/opponents of austerity (especially Labour party supporters) from Ryan Bourne, Head of Economic Research at the Centre for Policy Studies, writing in the Commentator.com

Low Turnouts & Social Media

samedi, août 25th, 2012

Why at a time of increasing disengagement from the political process in a democratic society, are British citizens in general not more actively encouraged, or indeed inspired in the case of the younger generation, to vote?
The latest example of likely low turnout from the effect of a lack of engagement with the British electorate, would seem to concern the new elections planned in November for Police & Crime Commissioners (PCCs) and for which the Electoral Reform Society is currently projecting a turnout of less than 20%.This would be even less than the poor turnout of 31% for the local elections in May, which itself was down from the 35% turnout in 2008 (see Electoral Commission report – 2012-english-locals-election-report-web).
The PCC election process, therefore, does not currently present a good example of local democracy in action unless actual voter turnout levels on the day prove otherwise. As for the May 2012 local government elections, however, should turnout again be poor the local electorate will still live with the ?democratic? outcome; they will keep their democratic right to choose to vote or not, irrespective of turnout levels.
This does not mean that low turnouts are acceptable in a democratic society and the question is how to improve matters and particularly for the younger generation? Social media springs to mind where 18 – 24 year olds are concerned and it has already been noted that twice as many of this generation have subscribed to Facebook as have registered to vote. It is interesting then to compare differing articles on Why social media will solve the problem of local voter apathy countered by why Social media cannot solve the problem of local disengagement.

Lowering Growth Expectations for the British Economy

vendredi, août 10th, 2012

The Bank of England (BOE) has finally taken a more conservative position in managing public expectations of the British economy, by lowering its previous forecast of 0.8% growth for 2012 to zero. This also reflects the unexpected 0.7% contraction (subsequently revised upwards to a 0.5% contraction) in the second quarter of 2012 and its cautious view that the London Olympics would finally have only a small, positive impact on growth in the current third quarter. The Governor of the BOE has also stated that he does not know when growth will return to pre-financial crisis levels in the UK and that he cannot predict how events in the Euro-zone will affect demand for British exports or how business confidence will develop in the real economy.
Rachel Reeves, Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury, has predictably taken this as another opportunity for the Opposition Labour party to repeat that this was time for the Chancellor to admit that his deficit-reduction plans are not working, given that, despite the crisis in the Euro-zone, Britain is just one of two G20 countries in a double dip recession. To counter this argument, it is instructive then to compare the relative performance of the British economy with that of the two other leading European economies i.e. France and Germany.
In actual fact, the Bank of France has now joined the BOE in projecting a more pessimistic view of the French economy, warning that GDP would shrink by 0.1% in the current third quarter, after a similar reduction in the second quarter of 2012, and thereby technically predicting a second (double dip) recession as per the UK. This would also suggest a subsequent reduction in the current forecast of 0.3% growth for the French economy in 2012.
Even the German economy which has been performing resiliently since the Euro crisis in 2010, appears to be slowing down, with industrial production falling by 0.9% in June 2012. If this manufacturing slowdown continues into a German recession, this will be more due to the effects of a general slowing down in global growth, which is already impacting the British and French economies, rather than a reflection of the current policies of the individual governments.

Maintain Plan A Mr Chancellor!

dimanche, juillet 29th, 2012

Figures for UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) published last Wednesday, showed a 0.7% drop in GDP in the second quarter of 2012 after a fall of 0.3% in the first quarter, the latter which followed a 0.4% fall in the final quarter of 2011.

However, some commentators view this continuing technical recession as inconsistent with the strength of the latest job market figures, which showed that the number of persons employed increased by 181,000 during March-May, 2012. This is the strongest increase in employment in the last two years and comes mainly from the private sector. An additional quarter of a million people have been employed since autumn, 2011 while the economy according to the GDP figures has been technically in recession. At the same time the unemployment rate has decreased from 8.6% to 8.1%, which would indicate weak growth in an economy rather than one in recession. Otherwise, overall productivity has fallen which would then rather beg the question of employers as to why they have needed to recruit? This seems unlikely, particularly when historically such GDP figures have also always tended to be subsequently revised and, more often than not, upwards compared with the earlier estimates.

Therefore, the international rating agencies are currently still maintaining the AAA credit rating of the UK, with growth anticipated in the second half of 2012. Should such growth not materialise by the end of the year, however, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has recommended that the government should consider a range of measures to boost economic growth, including slowing the rate of its deficit reduction programme.

Despite, therefore, Labour Opposition cries that Plan A of the Chancellor has manifestly failed and that now is the time for a new Plan B for Growth (not Austerity), it would appear that the Chancellor should maintain course with his Plan A.

New Clause 3 for Overseas Voting Rights withdrawn!

vendredi, juin 29th, 2012

The New Clause 3 brought up and read a second time before being subsequently withdrawn by Geoffrey Clifton-Brown (The Cotswolds) (Con), during the 27th June Commons debate on the Electoral Registration & Administration Bill, would have removed the 15 year qualifying period for British citizens overseas altogether, so that all British citizens could qualify as overseas voters, regardless of when they were last resident in the UK.

The main problem identified and leading to withdrawal of the New Clause 3, was in requiring Electoral Registration Officers to maintain the same integrity of information on qualified overseas voters in the electoral register, as the Electoral Registration & Administration Bill requires for qualified domestic voters. Currently there is no requirement to keep electoral records of overseas voters once they have exceeded their 15 year qualifying period. It would, therefore, be difficult for an electoral registration officer to « promote who is entitled to register as an overseas voter, which in the Bill is a positive duty. »

However, there was no mention in this debate of the role and responsibility of the Electoral Commission, which has in the past been the focus of efforts to reach out to unregistered but qualified overseas voters via www.aboutmyvote.co.uk and associated promotional activities around election time.

The difficulties facing Electoral Registration Officers as required by the Electoral Registration & Administration Bill still have to be resolved for overseas voters , even with the current 15 year qualifying period remaining as it is. Since other countries seem to manage this process very well, what makes it so difficult for the UK?

http://www.votes-for-expat-brits.com/Sign-up-Poll.phpMr

Mr Clifton-Brown had previously argued well that:

« The House and the British people should take no pride in the fact that so few citizens living abroad are registered to vote. »

« In most other countries, both developed and emerging, voting rights for parliamentary elections depend solely on nationality, not on an arbitrary time limit. »

« For a democracy as ancient as ours, it is not an exaggeration to say that it is a stain on our democratic principles that our citizens are placed at such a disadvantage when they have moved abroad compared with citizens from those other countries. »

« There is certainly no lack of interest among British citizens who have lived abroad for more than 15 years. »

He was ably supported in his arguments by Mr Streeter (Devon South West) (Con), Nick de Bois (Enfield North) (Con), Heather Wheeler (South Derbyshire) (Con), Richard Shepherd (Aldridge-Brownhills) (Con) and Andrew Turner (Isle of Wight) (Con), although it was Sir Peter Bottomley (Worthing West) (Con) who first raised the important question:

« Should someone have the responsibility for trying to recruit these people to register in the same way that domestically resident people like myself are if they are entitled to vote? »

This latter intervention provided the opportunity for Mr Heath (Somerton & Frome) (Lib Dem) to respond on behalf of the government in identifying problems:

« For instance, there is no current requirement for registration officers to keep copies of previous registers, except in so far as they need them to check registrations for the 15 years provided for under the current legislation. So under the current terms of checking we would not have the material to check whether someone ever had been an elector?a properly registered person?in this country. »

« What we have done in the Bill is improve the overseas voting process. One significant part of that is the proposal to extend the electoral timetable for UK parliamentary elections from 17 to 25 days, which will make a significant difference to those who are registered in terms of enabling them to vote. »

« The hon. Member for Worthing West (Sir Peter Bottomley), who is not in his place, raised a cogent question: what are registration officers to do to identify all those abroad who might be qualified to vote? Putting an onus on them similar to the responsibility we are placing on them in this Bill to seek out everyone who could possibly be qualified to vote would provide an insuperable problem for them if applied to overseas electors. »

Mr Clifton-Brown responded:

« Of course everybody wants the integrity of the electoral register to be maintained to the utmost degree. Only those who are eligible to register should register. We all understand that. The Deputy Leader of the House asked how an electoral registration officer would promote who is entitled to register as an overseas voter, which in the Bill is a positive duty. »

« May I suggest to the Deputy Leader of the House and to the Committee a practical way of dealing with the issue? The hon. Gentleman should table an amendment on Report or an amendment should be tabled in another place to take powers to extend but not reduce the 15-year period at a time when the Government are satisfied that the registration process is robust and maintains the integrity of the electoral register. »

« I suggest that the Deputy Leader of the House table an amendment to take a power to extend the 15 years when the Government are satisfied that those measures are in place. On that basis, I beg to ask leave to withdraw my new clause. »

Membership of UK Political Parties

lundi, juin 18th, 2012

There has been a large decrease in reported membership of UK political parties over the post-war period. In 2010, only 1.0% of the electorate was a member of one of the three main political parties. Labour had approximately 194,000 members, the Conservatives 177,000 and the Liberal Democrats 65,000. However in the early 1950s, the Conservatives claimed nearly 3 million members while Labour claimed more than 1 million members.

Commons Library Standard Note SN05125 sets out available data on membership of the three main parties back to 1928, as well as more recent figures for smaller parties. It also looks at membership of other organisations, including trade unions and pressure groups, and the decline in party membership in other European countries.

Why Peers Cannot Vote In General Elections

dimanche, juin 10th, 2012

English Common law has long provided that Peers in the House of Lords cannot vote at Parliamentary elections. Since 1999 (and the House of Lords Act) it is the fact of being a member of the second chamber that actually prevents Peer from voting. However, Hereditary Peers who are excluded from membership of the House of Lords are able to vote, under the terms of the 1999 Act. Members of the House of Lords can vote in all other elections (European, local, referenda etc.).
Matthew Purvis, House of Lords Research Clerk, has provided (via his Twitter account @mtthwprvs) a link to Library Note LLN 2012/022 ? Members of the House of Lords: Voting at Parliamentary Elections ? which provides the background information.
From the voting rights standpoint and according to Nick Clegg, the Deputy Prime Minister, with regard to this incapacity to vote at general elections, and particularly how it relates to the European Convention on Human Rights:
?Parliament consists of the three estates of the Sovereign, the Lords and the Commons. The Lords sit in their own right. The Commons are elected by the remainder of the estate of commoners to represent them in Parliament. There was therefore no case for the Lords to vote to elect representatives, since they were able to sit in Parliament anyway.?
In terms of the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR), he added that:
?Article 3 Protocol 1 of the ECHR provides for a requirement to hold regular, free and fair elections, and the Strasbourg courts have taken this to include the individual right to vote. However that right to vote is not absolute and limitations may be imposed on it. The fact that Members of the House of Lords have a voice in Parliament makes it legitimate to deprive them of a right to have their voice also heard through their elected representative in the Commons.?

The above ruling by the ECHR could be viewed as a favourable legal precedent for old soldier Harry Shindler, who currently has his voting rights case before this Strasbourg court, having lost his right to vote after 15 years overseas and, therefore, the right to have his voice heard through his elected representative in the Commons.

Social Mobility Report 2012 of Alan Milburn

jeudi, mai 31st, 2012

The Politics Live blog of Andrew Sparrow in the on-line Guardian of 30th May, 2012 , provides a useful summary of the key points of the Social Mobility Report by Alan Milburn as reproduced below:

Here are the key points.

? Milburn says the professions generally remain a « closed shop » to applicants from poor background and that attempts to open them up over recent years have made little progress.

The question posed by this report is whether the growth in professional employment is producing a social mobility dividend for our country. The short answer is not yet.

Milburn says across the professions as a whole, « the glass ceiling has been scratched, but not broken ».

The senior ranks of the professions are a closed shop. If social mobility is to become anything other than a pipedream they will have to open up. Unfortunately, the evidence collected for this report suggests that there is only, at best, limited progress being made in prising open the professions. That is not about to change any time soon. Data collected for this report indicates that the next generation of our country’s lawyers, doctors and journalists are likely to be a mirror image of previous generations.

? He says medicine has made « far too little progress » and shown « far too little interest » in improving access to people from poor backgrounds.

Medicine lags behind other professions both in the focus and in the priority it accords to these issues. It has a long way to go when it comes to making access fairer, diversifying its workforce and raising social mobility. There is no sense of the sort of galvanised effort that the Neuberger Report induced in law. That is regrettable, not least because when it comes to both gender and race, medicine has made impressive progress over recent years … The profession itself recognises that the skills which modern doctors require include far greater understanding of the social and economic backgrounds of the people they serve. That is a welcome recognition. It now needs to be matched by action. Overall, medicine has made far too little progress and shown far too little interest in the issue of fair access. It needs a step change in approach.

He says one particular problem is that students need work experience to get into medical school, but that access to this is « often unstructured and informal.

We could uncover little systematic effort on the part of the medical profession to address this palpable unfairness ».

? He says journalism has gone backwards more than any other profession in becoming less open to people from poor backgrounds.

This report finds that journalism has shifted to a greater degree of social exclusivity than any other profession. Without a single representative or regulatory body, responsibility for bringing about change to the media sector sits with organisations’ boards, senior staff, editors, and human resources teams. Our sense is that current efforts are fragmented and lacking in any real vigour. Journalism, with some honourable exceptions, does not seem to take the issue of fair access seriously. Where it has focused on the issue, it has prioritised race and gender but not socio­-economic diversity. That needs to change.

He also says the media industry is the « worst offender » when it comes to abusing internships.

What seems to distinguish journalism from other professions is that interns are substitutes for what in other sectors would be regarded as functions carried out by mainstream paid employees. The practice in much of the media industry is more akin to treating interns as free labour. The problem with that is self-evident. It is possible only for those who can afford to work for free. It means that others ? perhaps with equal or better claims on a career in journalism ? are excluded from consideration.

? He says all the major political parties « continue to select parliamentary candidates who are disproportionately drawn from better-off backgrounds ».

Of the Coalition Cabinet in May 2010, 59% were educated privately. Some 32% of the final Cabinet under the previous Labour Government were also educated privately. Over recent years, the political parties have made some progress on selecting women and candidates from minority ethnic backgrounds. A similar effort is now needed on their part when it comes to diversifying the socio-economic backgrounds of those they select to be their candidates for MPs.

? He says the civil service has « made progress » in relation to improving access.

In 2009, 45% of senior civil servants were privately educated. Today, of the 200 top civil servants, 27% were privately educated.

? He says the legal profession is starting to make « real efforts » to improve access, but that progress is still « too slow ».

In some cases the legal sector is at the forefront of driving activity aimed at changing access to professional jobs, whether this is through co-ordinated outreach programmes or by introducing socio-economic data collection. We commend these efforts and would like to see other professions following suit. There is, however, a lot more that needs to be done. The further up the profession you go, the more socially exclusive it becomes. Even more worryingly, entry to the law ? and therefore the lawyers of the future ? is still too socially exclusive. Overall, law is on the right track. But its progress is too slow. It needs to significantly accelerate.

? He says the government has shown « good intentionality » on the issue of achieving fair access to the professions.

Overall the Government has shown good intentionality when it comes to trying to improve fair access to a professional career, even though it is making more progress in some areas than in others. It needs to be more holistic in its approach and ensure that its efforts are better co-ordinated.

Milburn says the social mobility business compact published by Nick Clegg last year « is to be commended » and he says ministers should publish an annual update on how it is being implemented.

? He says that internships should « no longer be treated as part of the informal economy » because of their importance to young people’s career prospects.

The government should find a way of kitemarking quality internships, he says. And there should be transparent and fair selection procedures.

? He says he will soon be publishing two more reports, one on access to universities and one about what the government is doing to tackle child poverty and improve social mobility.

Debt Overhang Depresses Growth.

samedi, mai 19th, 2012

Siren political voices in recession-hit European countries are luring voters with the appealing notion that there is a simple choice to be made between growth or austerity: Up with growth! Down with austerity! However, the Bloomberg article below – Bond Market May Not Warn When Debt Crisis Strikes – reveals that historically examples of countries growing their way out of excess debt are very rare.
In summary, too much debt – with the critical element being Debt Overhang, defined as a 5-year period when gross public debt exceeds 90% of GDP – depresses growth by as much as 1.2% points lower than in other periods, with real interest rates also typically as low during debt overhangs as they were before. Therefore, the financial markets will not necessarily send a warning signal to a government such as the US, through higher interest rates, that their policy could be detrimental to economic performance.
According to this definition of Debt Overhang, Italy, Greece and Japan are regular members of this club and, although the US is not there yet, it first breached the 90% threshold after the 2008 financial crisis, with Belgium, Iceland, Ireland and Portugal not far behind.
Austerity is not a cure for excessive debt either with such episodes in the past involving all kinds of explicit and disorderly debt restructuring or dressed up another way as e.g. debt forgiveness.
One successful example from the past is the US which made a complete recovery from the 1944-1949 period through balanced budgets, financial repression and robust growth in the 1950s and 1960s; however, with the federal deficit set to exceed $1 trillion in 2012 for the 4th year running, necessary cuts to entitlement programmes a seemingly insurmountable challenge and consumers not in the mood to spend for growth, financial repression appears the only option today.
This means keeping nominal interest rates low and allowing inflation to reduce the real value of debt whilst real interest rates remain negative for savers. Indeed the Federal Reserve has pledged to hold its benchmark interest rate near zero at least through to late 2014 and the Bank of England seems to be following a similar policy.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-16/bond-market-may-not-warn-when-debt-crisis-strikes.html