Trident Challenge

France and the UK similar but now only medium-sized powers, still occupy two seats on the UN Security Council along with the US, Russia and China, the main and victorious allies from the second world war. Both have retained their own nuclear deterrent capability which would appear to be based on an assumed although non-existent Cold War threat of a surprise attack, but which also serves to reinforce their otherwise diminished claims to remain at the Security Council table, when challenged by e.g. the more economically powerful Germany or Japan and the rapidly emerging India or Brazil.
In the case of the UK, the defence strategy for conventional forces assumes the opposite to the nuclear option i.e. that there is no immediate threat of an attack by another state. Also, contrary to the independence of the French nuclear deterrent, the UK relies on the US for its technology and now faces a decision on renewal of its Trident seaborne deterrent, a £20 billion or more commitment over the next 15 years. The governing coalition has pledged to maintain this deterrent but both parties have agreed that the case for Trident be re-examined to ensure continuing value for money and that the Liberal Democrats can also propose an alternative for consideration. Trident itself has been specifically excluded from the Strategic Defence and Security review but the Conservative Defence Minister Liam Fox has been landed with the hot potato of not only producing budget savings of 10% or so within the Ministry of Defence but also finding an extra £20 billion to replace Trident. He is faced, therefore, with either budgeting for a straight Trident replacement and comprehensively cutting back on the conventional defence portion or choosing a cost-reduced, alternative deterrent and a new defence strategy.
The Trident challenge for Prime Minister David Cameron is that strong defence of the realm is the default position traditionally adopted by the Conservative Party and its supporters going back to Mrs Thatcher and her nuclear deterrent commitment in the 1980s.The harsh realities of coalition government have already meant that core Conservative beliefs in e.g. low taxes and first past the post voting etc. have already been compromised. The future of Trident could be viewed as challenging what the Conservative Party fundamentally stands for and Mr Cameron might do well, therefore, to spend more time reconnecting with traditional Conservative voters, activists and MPs on the issue of core Conservative values.

2 Responses to “Trident Challenge”

  1. Rodney Harper dit :

    In a letter to the Times on the 6th of August, 2010 the former Conservative party leader Sir Michael Howard sees the need for those who defend the maintenance and modernisation of the Trident deterrent programme to do so in more precise terms than the rhetoric employed by the Secretary of State for Defence. He questions whether the threat of a nuclear attack on UK territory by a major land power is sufficiently probable to justify allocating such an enormous proportion of our national budget to insuring against it at the expense of far more urgent civil and military demands. There is no argument against the possession and deployment of a force capable of retaliating against lesser and far more probable nuclear threats from minor hostile nuclear powers. Sir Michael thinks that not only our military capacity but also our international prestige would be enhanced by devising a defence strategy appropriate for the 21st century rather than the 20th.
    The case of Japan is interesting in having no nuclear weapons but choosing to shelter under the US deterrent against e.g. the threat from a nuclear armed North Korea.

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